#133 Smart Retirement Planning in Volatile Markets: Cash Flow, TSP, and Taxes

Micah Shilanski 00:00
Yep, so as we’re kind of going through, one of the things that we’re kind of talking about beforehand in our pregame was, let’s talk about things that we work with, clients with every single day. Because one of the things that we find from our listeners is, is our listeners really have the same questions our clients do, because we’re kind of talking to the same people, we’re going through the same things, and so we kind of put together a nice little scatter plot of questions, but it really comes down to a lot of the basics, right, things that we have to deal with every single day. And so often, we can get excited with Tiktok reel, with an Instagram thing about this really cool investment idea, this really cool retirement idea, and it’s really this kind of one off thing that probably doesn’t affect you and is probably not good for your retirement. So one of the things that our job is always is like, Hey, let’s go back to the basics. Let’s go back to the things that work again and again and again and again to produce a successful retirement. And I have to tell my clients, Betcha, what you guys say as well, saying, Look, your guys’s retirement portfolio is not where you should get the excitement in your life for retirement, right? That’s not what I’m going for. You should get excitement from travel, from entertainment, from creating memories, all these other things, but we should build kind of a boring retirement plan that just does what it needs to do, so you can have the life you’d like to have, but John, what are your thoughts on that?

Christian Sakamoto 00:44
Hey. Thanks for having us.

Micah Shilanski 00:49
Welcome back to the Plan Your Federal Retirement podcast. I’m your co-host Micah Shilanski, and we got a special round table today because we wanted to bring in a lot of great questions that we have been getting, really, from coast to coast, a little bit International, actually, as well about how do all of these changes, everything that we’re currently seeing, the unknown and kind of planning, how do we bring these things together? So I asked a couple of other advisors to join me on this one, and the first one is John Raleigh. I’ve known John for, he’ll probably correct me, but over 25 years, so we’ve had a nice, long relationship, a great expertin the field, a lot of wisdom and experience to draw from. And of course, a local on the podcast, Christian Sakamoto, is joining us again, to join us. Gentlemen, thanks for coming.

John Raleigh 00:50
Thanks for having us!

John Raleigh 02:43
Great point when we get things too complicated, it really begins to cause all sorts of problems, and the basics are so important. I haven’t had any successful clients I’ve worked with that haven’t had the basics down and down solid. And to me, it really shows that it’s a common thread that needs to be there.

Micah Shilanski 03:01
Yeah, and the more complicated something is, let’s say there’s outside reasons that make a situation more complicated. The basics are even more important, right? Because the basics allow us to move into that more complexity that we see as well. But Christian, I kind of keep this over to you. What are some of the big questions, concerns, things are kind of coming up that you’re hearing right now, that we should be talking about with our listeners?

Christian Sakamoto 03:23
Yeah, I would say at least right now, lot of uncertainty, especially when it comes to the markets. And so I got that a lot just this, this week, last week was with all this uncertainty, what do we actually do? Like, what are some of the things that we can actually control? And so I had that conversation to say, well, well, let’s take a look. What are those levers that we can pull, things that we can control. We can take a look at your investments. We can change how we’re allocated, just between our our growth versus how much is not in the market, and cash, and bonds. We could pull those levers depending on when we want to spend that money. We can take it a step further for non TSP money or money in an IRA. We could even say, Well, how do our investments inside of growth look? Do we sell one particular fund and then buy another? Or do we sell one particular stock or security to buy another just based on the current events. Those are things we can actually control. But then even simpler than that, is cash flow, I would say, is going to be a big one as well, right? We can absolutely control what we’re spending. Sometimes we have control on the income that we bring on, and we have a little bit control there, but I’m more focused on where we’re spending our money. To say, where is it that we could either trim some fat or just work with that client to really understand what their budget is, so that it’s not just kind of going by the wayside, but we have a little bit more attention to detail on what their spending is, especially as costs keep rising. And then I’d say that’d be the third thing, not to steal anyone else’s thunder, but would be on tax planning as well. And I know we can talk about that later on today.

Christian Sakamoto 03:24
We gotta, you know, looking at tax plan, that’s another leverage we can pull. And you know, this year, it’s it’s going to be interesting to see where the taxes actually go, because it could change, and we’re still at least unknown where where they are now. But that is another area that we control. But how would you answer that Micah, we’ve got some uncertainty. What are some things that we can actually do?

Micah Shilanski 03:47
Yeah, we gotta give, we gotta give some listeners some reason to stay to the end of the podcast too, right? Yeah, talk about that.

Micah Shilanski 04:08
I you know, I like that aspect. Let’s control the controllables, right? There’s a lot of things we can’t control, but here’s what I think is going to help. Going to help a lot with uncertainty. Two things you’re gonna see, a common theme, by the way, for the rest of these questions in this number one, what’s our plan? Number two, let’s plan for the worst case scenario. And I’ve been calling this fear setting since the beginning of the year, when we started seeing the resignation, the fork, the drip, the VERA is, like, all these other things that have been coming out, I’ve been going to clients and be like, Hey, let’s start planning for the worst case scenario. What are you the most worried about? Like, I’m worried I’m going to lose my job there may or may not be a VERA and may or may not be a discontinued service. I may or not get my benefits. It’s like, okay, great. That’s what we need to plan for, right? And so whatever you’re worried about. Let’s sit back. Let’s open up the closet when it’s making those scary noises, and look and realize there’s no monster in there. Let’s peek under the bed and realize there’s no monster under the bed, right? It’s the same thing we’re going to be able to work with our kids on when they were young. It’s the same thing we’re going to work on as an adult. The thing we’re worried about is what we need a plan for, and then we start working one step at a time. John, what are your thoughts on that?

John Raleigh 06:42
I mean, that’s so true. And Micah, I was even thinking as you were speaking, that you can even go further back to saying the real basics, like, what are your cash reserves? How much cash reserves do you have? How much, how many months can you handle the craziness going on? I mean, those are so important, and it helps you plan for the worst case scenario, and especially if you have the basics all in place. So we’re working to make sure that we can ride through all the ups and downs of the markets and ups and downs of our retirement and ups and downs of our work time if you don’t have the cash reserves in place if you don’t, like Christian said, have an understanding of the spending and know that maybe there is times you need to sort of tighten the belt a little bit because of the circumstances out there, or maybe not if you’re not doing those sort of things is all that does is make the downtime seem worse. Peter

Micah Shilanski 07:39
John, want to add to that, right? Cash buys you time. Time buys you options, right? And so at the end of the day, so when the market took that big hit, right? I remember, had a client call like, oh my gosh, the market’s down so much. Let’s put some cash to work. Let’s put money to work. And they wanted to put their emergency reserve to work. Let’s hit the brakes on this, right? Like, Micah, come on, it’s going back up. It’s a guarantee. I was like, anyway, nothing is guaranteed with the market, but I hear you right. Long term, you’re probably going to make some money on this. But that doesn’t mean we violate our basic, what’s our basic goal? You have three to six months of spending. Whatever you’re spending need three to six months of that available. I make my math easy. You’re spending $10,000 a month. That’s 30 to 60,000 bucks. You needed a 911 account. I don’t care if it’s Capital One, Marcus, immigrant, Rex, some online, make somewhere, FDIC to church for you at money market, right? But that’s a 911 account. And I love what you’re saying about that, because if we break that rule, right? Murphy’s Law says something else is going to happen. The transmission is going to go out, the water heater is going to go out, the tree’s going to hit the house. There’s going to be a rift, right? You’re going to lose your job. Benefits won’t start right away. We gotta have that cushion of time. And that kind of goes into that second question that we have been hearing a lot this year, is, what if I get laid off? And that goes, John, right back to what you were saying, why cash is so important,

John Raleigh 09:00
it is. And it’s amazing that that step gets missed, and it’s so easy to get away from it, and, oh, I can go buy the car and I’ll pay cash for it because I need a new car, or I don’t need a new car at that point, and all of a sudden, you go, you you stop from being disciplined, you stop from being structured and having a great game plan in place to to no longer have enough.

Micah Shilanski 09:22
Boy, I like that, right? I’m a big Jocko fan Extreme Ownership. So, you know, discipline equals freedom, you know, and this is one of those discipline things that’s here now, Christian, I want to kind of come back to our next question on here. I’m gonna skip down to a good one that you had, because I think this ties hand in hand with this cash conversation, which really comes in an aspect that says, you know, how do we create an investment strategy? So I’m gonna put you on the spot and says, Okay, what’s our first rule about investing when we get to making an investment strategy?

Christian Sakamoto 09:51
Yeah, that’s gonna be the money that we plan to spend in the next five years that we don’t want in the stock market, right? We say that, we reiterate that, but it’s true. And we go back to the why, and we hold up our hand and say, 2008 9, 10, 11, 12, we say, that’s five years that it took the market to recover. And so therefore we probably want to make sure we have at least five years outside of the market to weather the next storm that’ll come, the next downturn that’ll be there, and so that guides and dictates how much that we want to have in our investment strategy and what to consider for it. And we talked about this recently as well. That’s going to be a combination of whatever your pension income will be, or maybe any additional wages that you might have, really what are all the sources of fixed income that will be coming in while you’re still working, or while you’re transitioning to retirement, or if you get laid off, or all the, you know, whatever it is, identify all those fixed expenses. You know, maybe you’re married and your spouse continues to work, or there’ll be some social security aspect there, right, figure out what all that is, and then anything left over that gap between what your top number is a month with fixed income, is that gap, we need to now make sure we have five years worth set aside out of the market, and then therefore the rest of the money we can consider putting it in growth to make sure we have that long term growth so that when the market does eventually recover, there’s enough there that we didn’t just spend because we kept it all in cash. We have to consider your retirement income timeline to know what’s our investment strategy.

Micah Shilanski 11:34
So key, right? You know, you guys know this, our five step process of success work with a client is we go through estate planning, risk management, retirement income, then investments, then taxes, and we’re very intentional behind this. Krishna, for what you’re just saying, is we gotta have that retirement income plan first. So many people have mixed this up. So many financial advisors mix this up is they get so focused on the money, they want to jump into the investments. The investments are just a tool, right? So my wife wants to build this giant deck in the backyard this this summer. So if we go to build that deck, and I just go to my toolbox and I bring out all the tools, I dump out all my tools in the backyard, right? I’m like, All right, I got all these tools that are out there. Well, on a second, that’s not a really good plan for building a deck, right? I need a little bit more of a plan. What tools do I actually need on the shop? I don’t need everything in my garage to come out to build a deck. But we do that same thought when it comes to investments. So other advisors, especially, they say, Hey, all I want to focus on is the investments. They pour all the tools from the tool chest, but they don’t know where you’re going. We got to solve for something, right? And what we’re solving for, Christian is that gap so far to heard you say, if a client spent a $10,000 in between, let’s say their pension and incomes coming in is 4000 a month. That gap is 6000 so we need that 6000 a month protected for the next five years, plus taxes on top of that, don’t we, right? So we need a healthy portion of money outside of the market. And when you say, outside the market, what does that mean, John, what does outside of the stock market mean

John Raleigh 13:00
something that doesn’t have principal risk, something that is not that we know is going to be there. There’s all different avenues to do it, but it really is, where you’re not concentrating on the return, even though the return is important of that money, but you’re making sure that the the money is going to be there for when you need it. What

Speaker 1 13:20
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John Raleigh 14:47
at? Well, first of all, making sure you you know what you’re needing for retirement. I mean, the basic is, how much money is going to need to come out of the investments to be able to maintain this lifestyle I live. And that’s a tricky one, because a lot of people will say, Oh, I won’t need as much money as I’m making right now. And basically what that does is put you in a situation, okay, so you’re going to sell it for less than what you’re dealing with right now. I mean, so there’s a lot, there’s a lot of factors there to sit there and say, Okay, how much income do I need? Then you look at it, and when you’re talking about giving and investing money on a timeframe situation, is there enough money that’s going to be subject to market exposure to give us the opportunity to replace the money that’s spent being spent in year one through five and then year six through 10, and then that time frame. So I mean to me, it’s first of all saying how much money is there, or how much money do you need, and then is the pool of money that you’ve done saved so far, if you’re not retired, big enough to maintain that, or how much you need to save to get there, or if you’re retired, is that pool big enough, and can we make this work with the sources of income you have?

Speaker 1 16:04
I like it. I think there’s a misconception out there. I was trying to look to see who came up with this, and I don’t know, but it was the aspect that says, hey, you need 80% of your current income into retirement, or if your house is paid off, you need 60% and I think that’s bogus. You need, John, 100% what you said, 100% of what you’re spending today, unless, like, the house is going to get paid off next year. Okay, then we could kind of talk about that, short of that, we need to plan for 100% of whatever you’re spending now. How do we replace that and your investment? Actually, your pension is fantastic, right? Your first pension coming in Social Security is fantastic, but they both have a common flaw with them, and this is something that’s going to bite you in the butt if you don’t follow the strategy correct, and that’s inflation. Neither one of those are designed to outpace inflation, and we’ve seen that in the last several years, right? And we get to see this working with retirees, that they’re coming in like, hey, this money is not going as far as it used to go. What are we going to do if the investment plan was set up correct, the investments are what has to outpace inflation. So I know Christian one of the comments is people are asked like, what changes should I make inside of my tsp? And this kind of goes back to the investment plan. I had a new client contact us the other day, and he has about most of his money in the L 2025 fund, because he’s going to retire this year. And from his perspective, right? It made tons of sense. It’s like, Hey, I’m going to retire in 2025 so I’m putting 100% of my money in the L 2025 Fund, which is the life cycle fund for retiring in 2025 That’s a great thought, but the application doesn’t quite work out. So Krishna, gonna pick on you? Like, what’s the what’s the concern we would have with that if somebody’s going into retirement? Yeah,

Christian Sakamoto 17:47
great question. So I just looked it up. When we look on the TSP website for the allocations in the Nell 2025, fund, I’m gonna round 66% is in the G fund. Like, five and a half percent in the F Fund. Okay, so right there 70% of that l 2025 fund is not investments in cash and bonds. So that would mean, alternatively, there’s only about 30% that’s still in the market. So the question would be, for somebody who’s just now retiring, and they’ve got 2030, plus years to live in retirement, do we want this tsp? Is there going to be a probably a huge chunk of their net worth and investable assets in retirement? Do we want 70% out of the market at retirement? The answer could be, perhaps, yeah. Maybe, right? Maybe, if we go through their investment goals and income goals, and they don’t actually need their tsp distributions to live on, and they’re they’re going to be made just fine with the pension and Social Security go. Perhaps that might be for them, that that would work. But for a lot of people, those l 2020 that l 2025 fund, would just be too conservative. That’s kind of the problem with the life cycle funds is we see them get a little bit too conservative, a little too quickly. And so if you’re not careful, you might find yourself just thinking, Oh, I’m retiring in 2025 so that’s where I’m going to put my money, without realizing, well, shoot, that probably isn’t the right allocation for most people.

Speaker 1 19:17
It’s 100% correct, right? And then the other thing with the L 2025 fund Christian, which I know, you know, is that at the end of this year, turns into the L Income Fund, right? And the L Income Fund is a little deceiving, in my opinion. It’s it’s name, right? It’s not so much designed to to draw income. But now you went from, I’m going to get this wrong, but 70% to probably 75 or 80% inside of the G and F and so this goes back to Krishna, that five year rule you were talking about, right? If it’s money we need to spend in the next five years, boy, let’s make it protected, and the G fund would probably be a great place for it. Now, we got a problem, unfortunately, with the TSP, because they’re proportionate distribution rules and how we can pull money out. I know we talked about this on a previous podcast, so it’s not a great one fit solution, but sometimes I like with clients, especially most of the time with clients I really love. As they get close to retirement, to customize their l fund, let’s create your own l fund. You know? Let’s create the Bob L fund. Let’s create the SU l fund, right? Let’s look at what you’re spending, what you’re going to do, and there’s only five funds. And now let’s build your own alpha now, if you’re younger in the timeline, and we’re just putting money in the TSP, man, I love the L funds, right? Stick it in there. Forget about it. Just fund that bad boy. Let it work. As we get closer to retirement, the L funds tend to get a bit too conservative too quickly, which runs into the retirement nemesis, inflation, right? How are we going to outpace inflation? And the G fund’s just not going to do it. That doesn’t mean the G fund’s bad if you want. G1 fantastic for a money market return, but it’s not an inflationary return. Sorry, I geek out on this. I’m probably a little too excited. All right, Sean, let’s go ahead and make sure we’re actually talking a little bit about taxes, though. So I’m going to kind of kick a little two questions over to you, and I’d love to know your thoughts on this, a couple big things that end up biting clients in the rear when we haven’t planned for it. RMDs right? Required minimum distributions between 73 and 75 number one, number two is going to be not good tax planning, and that’s how RMS kind of bias as well. So what are some of the things you’re hearing from clients on this, and how do we address those? It’s

John Raleigh 21:19
so interesting, because the people that get by the taxable situation are only people that have put off, not paying attention to it, or they just spent their whole life saying, what is the minimum amount of taxes can pay right now? Because when you hit required minimum distributions, all of a sudden you have no control, and a new source of income is hitting it’s going to be taxable to you. It’s going to push you up into tax brackets you haven’t you’ve been trying to avoid, and you can’t stop it. So it makes it really difficult not to pay attention. And I know this is my opinion, but the tax codes seem to be designed to hurt the people that are procrastinators the most. If you’re proactive in your thinking, you I mean, you have a better chance. It’s no different than if you’re playing a board game when, if you remember when you were a kid or whatever, and you read the directions first, it’s so much easier to win the game if you know what the rules are than if they’re not, and I’m not saying read the tax codes, but be aware of them and make sure that you use the ones at your advantage. I know, Mike, you’re

Speaker 1 22:29
now you can say it. I’m a tax geek. That’s fine. I’m weird. I am that guy that actually reads the tax code. Fair enough, John. I really want to pull that thread a little bit, because I love the way that you said that which the tax code penalizes procrastinators. That’s true, right? Because we want to save the most money today. We dump it in the TSP all pre tax we get, we think is a tax deduction. You didn’t get a tax deduction. You got a loan from the IRS. But the problem is, you don’t get to set the interest rate that loan is at. That’ll be wherever you draw that money back is how much you gotta pay. So we really gotta balance this out in tax planning. So Christian, I know you’re big into the the 10 year timeline of tax projections, the Roth conversion strategies. How do you blend that when you’re working? Let’s go with a pre retiree, and then how does that change with the retiree as well?

Christian Sakamoto 23:15
Well, we have to consider we’re going to play in the rules or the sandbox that we have today, we have to understand that we can’t predict where taxes will be 10 years from now. But if we just ask the question, where do we think taxes will be in the future, if we just had to guess, like if we had to guess, do we think taxes are going to go up or down in the future? A lot of times, the response I get is I do think taxes will be going up in the future, and for a while over the last, what seven years. That was a fact that the tax cuts and Jobs Act that began 2018 through 2025 lowered the tax rate. And therefore starting in 2026 the taxes were going to go up. So as we’re recording this, we still don’t know what the new tax proposals might be, but what we want to do to help answer that question is just say, Okay, where do we think tax the tax laws might be? But then we also want to go back to spending and cash flow. If we go back to John’s point, do we think we’re going to be spending 80 or 60% of what we’re making when we retire, and we say no to that, well, then good chance your tax bracket is going to be very similar to what it is now. So we can try to mimic what your tax bracket is today of what it will be in retirement. And that’s true when I’m talking to someone who’s pre retired. In fact, if they’re retired, we have a little bit more history to kind of prove that point. But then there’s going to be different levers that get pulled as well, one of them being social security, which increases the tax rate. And then number two, nothing, what the RMD values would be as well. Christian, you

Speaker 2 24:55
said, I don’t ask question, correct? You said Social Security increases your tax rate. Like, how does turning on Social Security increase increase your

Speaker 1 25:02
tax rate? Yeah, so social security actually is part of your taxable income up to 85%

Speaker 1 25:10
and 85% of Social Security is taxed, and for some it’s less than that, depending on what their income is.

Micah Shilanski 25:17
So yeah, we got that extra income that’s kicking on and so that’s what’s kicking up our taxes higher and higher. Then that goes right into those RMDs too, right,

Christian Sakamoto 25:25
right, right. And we can kind of mathematically project, okay, well, we think, based on your IRA and tsp balance, what it is today that 10 years from now, when you hit RMD age, that with the investment growth, what we think it’ll be that we can predict how much that RMD is, just doing that math today, and is it going to be perfect? No, but for some people, it’s a shocking number, right? If we looked at a million dollar tsp and we forecast 10 years from now, it’s maybe, maybe 2 million. Okay, well that might be a $80,000 RMD that they might have to take out, you know? And that could really just if, again, if we didn’t, if you weren’t intentional about it, it could really blow up their tax plan. So we have to

Speaker 1 26:10
Medicare, get your Irma rates as well, right? That’s your opinion.

Christian Sakamoto 26:15
So probably a long winded answer there. But there’s lots of things to consider as we’re thinking about, again, the tax laws that we’re in and kind of playing in those rules, but also being aware that they might change, they could go up. So we might want to take advantage of the years for which the taxes might be lower. Yeah, I like what you

Speaker 1 26:31
said there, right? Which is plan for the laws we know today. And I think a lot of people get stuck in that, well, I don’t know what the I don’t know what inflation is going to be. I don’t know the future’s gonna be. I don’t know what tax should be. I don’t know if bullets are gonna be, cuz you’re correct we, none of us know right now, 10 years is gonna happen, whether you like it or not, the time still moves on. So the question is, what do we know today? What are those going back to the top of the podcast, right? What are those controllable things that we can do? And then you start implementing a plan, and it’s the plan you’re doing today, the exact same plan you’re gonna be doing at retirement. Why don’t That’s how far that is, right? 15 years down the road, the answer is no, because the rules are going to change, John to kind of what you were saying, right? It’s nice to know what the rules are before we play with the game. Congress is going to change the rules. That’s not an excuse not to do a plan. All of the clients we’ve worked with that do plans that follow them and then tweak them as they go on are head and shoulders above the people that come to us and like, well, really haven’t done any planning, and here’s what I have, right? They’re not the same situations. So let’s pull this down to some I could talk about this all day, but let’s pull this into some action items for our listeners, right? I think really a key source here is going to be, what’s your plan? Don’t over complicate this, right? But do you know the basics? Do you know what your cash flow is? It’s going to be really, really important. So I’m going to say that’s the number one thing. Is knowing your cash flow. How much do you spend? Right? Do we have that emergency reserve? John, what would you say is another action item our listeners can do?

John Raleigh 27:55
Well, if it’s okay, I’ll just add one other thing. Not only know what your reserves are, but if you’re have trouble tracking your expenses, and you’re working, here’s your income, then as the expenses going out, and use that that make it simple. And that’s, that’s a great action item to do. And I think anybody that hasn’t done it, I mean, you’re making a mistake. Because I guess I don’t know you all can answer it. I have not had a special client that wasn’t strong in their cash reserves, and that piece of their planning process. Then, of course, the next step is, if you’re retired, what is your living right now? And how are your investments set up associated with the money you need coming out. So where is if you’re if you’re retired, what’s that number, if you’re thinking about retirement, what do you think that number is going to be, so that you can plan to put the pieces in place so that when retirement comes, you’re able to handle that that particular process,

Speaker 1 28:52
I like it. Christian another action item our listeners can be thinking about

Christian Sakamoto 28:56
this week. Well, speaking of taxes, I would say, develop a tax plan and a tax projection for this current tax year. That might sound a little bit scarier than what it actually is. The first place to start is go back to last year’s tax return. Just take a look at that 1040 you know, look at what your wages were, maybe your retire pension, maybe Social Security income. Figure out what your taxable income was, and then think about this year. What changes happened last year to this year that might affect this number? Did I get A a bonus, or am I getting a raise? Am I stopping work and I’m now retiring? Develop that tax plan and tax projection for this year would be my recommendation. If you get a little bit concerned on how to do that. You can contact us, because we, we do that all day long, but that, that would be my action item. I like it. You

Speaker 1 29:46
know, a simple way to do that too. If you’re, you’re a big do yourself or and you really like doing your own taxes on Turbo Tax, actually get your taxes done. Go back into it crystal. Do what you said. Adjust if we were income is going to be this year, and you’re going to get pretty close until they change the law. Then that’s going to be my story. But until that time, right, you’re going to get pretty close on what it’s going to be awesome, gentlemen. I’ve had a lot of fun. I think it’s been a lot of value to our listeners. Biggest thing, of course, with our listeners, is take action. One of the things we’d love you guys to do is we want to help another 1 million federal employees with retirement. Can’t do that without your help. So make sure you hit the like button. Make sure you share this. Send this podcast out message to other federal boys. We want you to have the right information when you get ready to retire. Thank you guys again until next time. Happy planning. Hey

Speaker 3 30:30
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